Betting on India

Betting on India

Betting on India

“India makes no sense to live in because of pollution, bad infra and a poor standard of living” said my friend from New York

She seems right. Pollution is tragic. Taxes seem to go nowhere useful. Traffic is out of control. Work culture seems horrible. Roads are barely walkable, let alone scenic. Jobs abroad pay in dollars, not rupees. US is 6 times bigger. India seems to be third-class

Except, it is completely missing the generational transformation underway in India

My parents graduated from the IITs in the late 1980s. 10% of their batch stayed back. The decision made much sense. India was impoverished, 3rd world, closed. GDP was $300B, per capita $300. US was 20x bigger at $6T, per capita 80x higher at $24K. For India’s most talented, it made sense to migrate. Life was exponentially better

Fast forward to my batch at IIT Bombay in 2014, 70% stayed back based on a fascinatingly detailed survey

I suspect this number will be even higher for the batch of 2024. India’s talented young people are staying back, unlike the widely believed “brain drain”. Why would they do that? India today is touching $4T. US is $25T, just 6x bigger now. Purchasing power puts India at $12T, half of the US. PPP matters because big brands, companies, manufacturers are all here. 40 years ago, India was less attractive than a small US state

People are staying back to be part of the epic transformation to a superpower

But what about the 1L people giving up Indian citizenship yearly? That number has stayed constant for 13 years. As a % age of rich people it has fallen by 90%. Fewer % of wealthy Indians are leaving. Why leave the fastest-growing large economy. But what about the quality of life?

Quality of life follows economic transformation

In the last 20 years, road vehicles have 6x to 326M. Roads 6x to 7M km. Solar 560x from 100 MW to 56,000 MW. UPI volume has gone from 0 to 100B. Internet penetration from 0.5% to 47%. Literacy from 40% to 80%. Smartphone users from close to 0 to 700M. Quality has not just improved up and right, but exponentially

That is not to say that India has no problems

Pollution could knock off 8 billion person-years, 6 years/person. The employment rate has remained flat at about 50%. Female labour participation is 19%, as low as war-torn Syria. But I believe we are on the right path. China solved all 3 in its epic transformation over 2 decades. India has the largest population of 910M young millennials who would lead this charge

India is a young startup going through a growth transformation, with huge pluses and some pain

I will probably never know what life would have been like if I had moved to the US. I did bet my life on India. But what I do know is that India has treated me well economically, emotionally, and energetically. Most importantly, I have been able to stay with family in the country I call home. I am grateful, lucky and have no complaints

To my friend, I guess it makes a lot of sense to live in India. Come back home?

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© 2024 ajvc Fund. All rights reserved.

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