Ukraine’s crisis has dominated our attention for the past week, with the whole world on edge.
To understand what is happening, we need to look back at the deep history of Ukraine and Russia
In the 1200s, Kievian Rus became the largest and most expansive empire in Europe that set the base for Russians and Ukrainians. By the 1300s, this was destroyed by the Mongols
Over the next 400 years, it changed hands, being occupied Lithuania and Poland. By 1600, Crimea expanded to a Crimean Khanate. In the 1770s, Russia annexed the Khanate. By 1800s, Ukraine had a civil war between west and east, a country divided
By the end of World War I in the 1920s, Russia, now USSR, had full control of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Soviet Republic was attacked repeatedly hands over the course of the next 30 years.
Poland first occupied it, which was then itself invaded by Germany/Russia. Kiev even served as a massive resistance against occupying German forces invading Russia, cementing its status in Russian eyes as Ukraine lost 50% of USSR’s people
With World War II done, Ukraine was now firmly part of the USSR. Nikita Khrushchev, the USSR’s secretary for Ukraine, becomes the Soviet’s new leader. Ukraine transforms into a technical hub, producing heavily. It got 20% of the gigantic USSR’s budget, while only accounting for 0.5% of its landmass. With the heavy investments in nuclear power, by the 1980s it had become USSR’s 2nd most powerful republic
The sprawling Soviet Empire started creaking economically and politically in the 80s. Pushed by the US, the “Eastern Bloc” started crumbling, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, an anti-communist wave spread through USSR. Lithuania left first, and soon dominos fell. Gorbachev, the USSR’s leader was increasingly superseded by Russia’s leader Yelstin. Ukraine left on December 1st, 1991, killing the USSR and creating 15 countries
In 1992, NATO, a global military alliance, thinks of adding some of the new countries. Ukraine establishes relations, but doesn’t join. In 1994, it agrees to get rid of its nuclear stockpile, the world’s 3rd largest. Leonid Kuchma transforms Ukraine into a capitalist society. Yelstin begins to groom an ex KGB official, Vladmir Putin.
By 1999, Yelstin’s power is declining sharply
In 2000, Putin ascends to power.
He builds a relationship with Leonid Kuchma. In 2004’s Ukrainian election, Putin supports Kuchma’s protege Viktor Yanukovych. His opponent Victor Yuschenko is poisoned and disfigured. After massive protests in the “Orange Revolution”, Yuschenko wins on the pro-democracy plank.
By 2008, Yuschenko tries to join NATO, but Russia is angry. A crisis is coming
In 2009, Russia’s Gazprom stops supplying gas to Ukraine.
As Putin plays his first-ever manoeuvre, the throttling of gas spooks Europe. Yuschenko loses badly and Yanukovych, who had been in the opposition, wins. Yanukovych initially starts with a neutral stance towards EU but lurches towards Russia. He refuses to sign a pact to join the EU, resulting in the Euromaidan Pro-EU protests of 2013
Yanukovych flees to Russia.
Putin ramps up interference in Ukraine. Ukraine’s deep historical Russia connection, high resource intensity and importance to the EU makes it an ideal attraction for Putin. Deep Russian roots make Russians a large minority in Ukraine, accounting for 17%. Putin plays on this and annexes Crimea in mid 2014
Russia continues its offensive in Russian dominated Donetsk, Donbas and Luhansk, all in the east. The East-West division, created centuries ago, still runs deep. In May’ 14 pro-Western politician Poroshenko becomes Ukraine’s president. Frightened by Russia, Ukraine starts building up energy and security independence. Economic reforms begin in earnest
In 2016, it joins Free Trade with the European Union
Russia keeps up the attack.
Fighting continues in Donbas and cyberattacks assaulted Ukrainian infra and electricity in 2017. The economy stagnates over the next few years. By 2019, Poroshenko finds an ex-standup comedian fighting him in the elections.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is elected President in a landslide. He vows to find peace in Russia and end Donbas’s war. His efforts are hampered by US President Trump, who asks for an investigation into Biden’s son
Despite Putin’s reassurances, Donbas’ war escalates in 2020 and 2021. Russia has almost 100K troops stationed.
As crude oil prices rise and then tumble to $60/bbl in early Dec’ 21, troops start building up around Ukraine. Oil contributes 15-20% of GDP, and a rise in crude prices only helps Russia. Ukraine gets closer to joining NATO, which Putin describes as a security threat. Financial threats are given to Putin in Jan’22.
Putin demands Ukraine is banned from NATO, but NATO officials decline.
In early Feb, European leaders meet Putin to try to stop conflict. Russia builds up in Belarus.
On Feb 11, US and the UK urge citizens to leave Ukraine. Ukraine is now losing $3-4Bn/month out of fear of Russian attack. On 21 Feb, Putin recognizes Donetsk and Luhansk as Republics.
On 24 Feb, Russia launches an attack on Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine have a chequered history of conflict and cooperation, with rivalries and friendships going back centuries. History helps us understand the future.
Ukraine’s Soviet history, ethnic composition, historical affinity for the EU indicate why Ukraine will not be annexed as easily as Crimea
As things stand, Russia is bleeding money and unable to win. Ukraine is bleeding and unwilling to lose.
In a few weeks, history books will be writing a new chapter, a new victor and loser
