I believe India’s decade has come in our 75th year as a Republic
India is the most polluted country on earth, losing 8 billion man-years of health. Women’s labour participation is as low as that of war-torn Syria and Yemen. Employment has fallen from 50% in 1991 to 45% today. Rather than a superpower in waiting, we look set for disaster.
But looking deeper reveals a $10Tn economy in waiting rocketing upwards
India was a $2Tn economy in 2013. In 10 years, another India has been added. Millionaires have grown from 1L to 20L. Startup funding has grown 10x from $2B to $20B. Internet penetration has gone from a paltry 10% to more than 50%.
A giant young population is powering this
India is now the largest population on Earth. Not just that, it has 900 million young people, almost 2x ageing China’s 500 million. India’s youth is so large, it is equal to the entire top 10 young populations combined, barring China. India’s median age of 28 puts it 10 years behind US’ 38
Young population will power entrepreneurship, consumption and creation
India’s transformation is visible throughout tech and business. India now exports $133B of IT, more than Saudi Arabia exports $110B of oil. UPI is now a global showstopper, doing 150B+ annual transactions. Number of unicorns are 100+, putting India at global number 3. Market cap has crossed $4.3Tn, up 14x from 2000.
Exponential growth is not just limited to business
Solar capacity has exploded 300x from 161 MW to 56,000 MW in just 10 years. Road vehicles have 6x from 2000 to 326 milion today. Road length has almost 5x from 2001 to 7 million km. India has now put a rover on the moon, the 4th in the world.
Like in space, we’re ready to take off now
I expect India to be $8Tn GDP, with $9Tn in market cap by 2033. One Indian giant will be in the global top 20. 250,000+ startups will exist then. IITs will break into the top 50 rankings globally. We will become a top 10 global destination in the next 10 years. India’s rise is a question of when, not if.
I couldn’t be more optimistic for India’s prospects, Happy Republic Day